Will Housing Prices Go Up After the Election? (July 2024)

Hello, dear readers and fellow homeowners,

As we navigate the anticipation of the upcoming presidential election, many of you may be pondering the same question that crosses the minds of countless Americans every four years: "Will housing prices go up after the election?" Well, if history is any guide, it might be time for an optimistic outlook on your home's value. The simple answer, historically speaking, is yes, they often do. But there's much more to the story.

First, consider a curious pattern: in nine of the past 11 presidential election cycles, we've observed a post-election bump in home sales. A glance at the Case-Shiller data lends weight to this trend, indicating a 4.84 percent climb in home prices during election years since 1987, as opposed to a 4.44 percent increase in non-election years. At a superficial glance, one might suggest that presidential elections bring good tidings to the housing market. Yet the intricacies of this market defy such a straightforward linkage.

Take, for instance, the tumultuous year of 2008 – a staggering 12 percent drop in home values that had little relation to the political battle between Obama and McCain. Instead, it was the culmination of economic factors, a housing bubble burst, and a financial crisis shaking the global foundation. Conversely, the buoyant year of 2004, with a robust 13.4 percent spike in home prices, had far more to do with the swelling bubble than President Bush's reelection campaign.

Fast-forward to the recent shockwaves of 2021, when home values soar by an incredible 18.9 percent, a phenomenon fueled by historically low mortgage rates and a unique COVID-19-induced housing demand, not as a direct cheer to Biden's inauguration.

Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, cuts through the fluff, stating, “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years. It’s really about demographics and the economy.”

So, as we navigate the waters of an election year, let us do so with the understanding that while patterns can provide guidance, the housing market remains a complex entity driven by a multitude of variables far beyond the political sphere. Whether home prices rise or fall, your informed decisions and my tailored advice will work hand in hand to ensure you find success and security in your real estate endeavors, no matter the election's outcome.

However, one thing remains clear: regardless of who claims victory in the upcoming election, demographic trends and economic conditions will continue to be the predominant forces shaping the housing market. As real estate enthusiasts, let us focus on these underlying currents to predict which way the property winds will blow. After all, the future of housing is written in more than just the stars of political change—it's etched in the everyday lives of millions striving for a place to call home.

Warm regards,

Michele